Improving and empowering state tax administration
Improving and empowering state tax administration

2003 Revenue Estimating Conference

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Presentations and Papers

2003 FTA Revenue Estimating Conference
September 21-24, 2003

Monday September 22

General Session 8:30 to 12:00 noon (Riverside III)

Cynthia Bridges, Secretary of the Louisiana Dept. of Revenue

Dynamic Scoring and the Federal Budget
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Congressional Budget Office

Recent Issues in Corporate Income Taxes:
Depreciation, Stock Options and Effective Tax Rates

Matthew Knittel, U.S. Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis

Break 10:15 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.

Macroeconomic Forecast
Cynthia Latta, Global Insight

Regional Economic Forecast
Charles deSeve, American Economics Group

Lunch 12:00 to 2:00 p.m. (on your own)

Breakout sessions 2:00 to 3:30

Session I: Outlook for Selected Economic Sectors (Dauphine I & II)
Moderator: Michael Allen

The Outlook for Construction & Housing: Big Buildup or In the Hole?
Kenneth Simonson, Associated Gerneral Contractors of America

Outlook for the Retail Sector
Cynthia Latta, Global Insight

Session II: Managing a Research Section (Fulton)
Moderator: Dick Gebhart

Tax Compliance Research Opportunities In a Lean Budgetary Environment
Dick Gebhart, Minnesota Dept. of Revenue

Performance Based Compensation In Minnesota
Tom Stinson, Minnesota Dept. of Finance

Oregon’s Council of Revenue Forecast Advisors: The costs & Benefits of Forming a Review Committee
Tom Potiowsky, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Managing the Fiscal Note Process and Staying Employed
Mary Welsh, Washington Dept. of Revenue


Regional Breakout Sessions 3:45 to 5:30


Tuesday September 23

Concurrent Breakout Sessions 8:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.

Session III: Corporate Tax Issues/Delaware Holding Companies (Dauphine I & II)
Moderator: Michael Allen

Corporate Income Tax In Maryland -- What Next?
David Roose, Maryland Comptroller of the Treasury

Corporate Business Tax Reform in New Jersey: One Year & Counting
Richard Kaluzny, New Jersey Dept. of Treasury

The Effects of Pass-through Entities on Tax Collections
Benjamin Uy, BearingPoint

Session IV: State Tax Reform (Fulton)
Moderator: Tom Clifford

Ohio State & Local Tax Study
Mke Sobul, Ohio Dept. of Taxation

Washington State Tax Study Committee
Lorrie Brown, Washington Dept. of Revenue

What Needs Reforming?
Robert Cline, Ernst and Young, LLP

New Mexico State Tax Study
Tom Clifford, New Mexico Taxation & Revenue Department


Break 10:00 a.m. – 10:15 a.m.

Concurrent Breakout Sessions 10:15 a.m. – 12:00 a.m.

Session V: Forecasting on a Shoe String: Methodological Approaches for Small States (and What Can Be Learned from Large States) (Dauphine I & II)
Moderator:Joe LaFace

Issues in forecasting the Sales and use Tax: Wealth Variables and Beharioral Responses
Michael Sobul, Ohio Dept. of Taxation

Forecasting Oregon Personal Income Tax Revenues: The Elusive Tax Base
Michael Kennedy, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Complementary Revenue Estimating Techniques to Regression Analysis
Joe LaFace, Arkansas Dept. of Finance & Administration

Favorite Tips, Tricks, and Insights on Revenue Forecasting
Discussion from Participants

Session VI: Tax Expenditure Budgets – Moderator: John Scott (Antonine)


Session VII: Data Base Development (Fulton)
Moderator: Eng Braun

The Washington State Compliance Study
Mary Welsh, Washington Dept. of Revenue

Developing NAICS-based Forecasts
Fred Treyz, Regional Economic Models, Inc.

Corporate Tax Modeling for Combined Reporting
Eng Braun, Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue

Lunch 12:00 noon to 1:30 p.m. (Riverside I & II)
Gazing into the Crystal Ball: Key Factors That Will Influence Revenue Forecasts
  Speaker: Dr. Loren Scott, Loren Scott Associates

Working Session 1:30 p.m. – 2:30 p.m.

Break 2:30 p.m. – 2:45 p.m.

Concurent Breakout Sessions 2:45 p.m. – 4:30 p.m.

Session VIII: Personal Income Taxes (Dauphine I & II)
Moderator: Karen Schlain

A Review of Arizona’s Credits
Georganna Meyer, Arizona Dept. of Revenue

Income Tax Forecasting, Who Does What Exogenously?
Tom Williams, Utah State Tax Commission

Impact of the Federal Alternative Minimum Tax on New Yorkers
Karen Schlain, New York City Dept. of Finance

Session IX: Cigarette Taxes (Fulton)
Moderator: TBD

Estimating the Elasticity and Border Effect for the Cigarette Tax
Some Preliminary Estimates of the Border Price Effect on cigarette Sales (paper)
David Peterson, Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue

The Minnesota Fee on Non-Participating Manufactures
Rod Hoheisel, Minnesota Dept. of Revenue

Banquet 6:30 p.m. – 10:30 p.m. (Grand Ballroom - Riverside I, II, & III)
with entertainment


Wednesday September 24

9:00 a.m. – 12:00 a.m. General Session (Riverside III)

Update on the Streamlined Sales Tax Project
Diane Hardt, Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue & Co-Chair SSTP

Washington Update
Harley Duncan, FTA

Volatility of Major Tax Types
Fanny Naribo-Roberts, Washington Dept of Revenue

Update on the FTA Research Roundtable
Joe LaFace, Arkansas Dept. of Finance & Administration and Chair of the Research Roundtable