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Presentations and Papers
2003 FTA Revenue Estimating Conference
September 21-24, 2003
General Session 8:30 to 12:00 noon (Riverside III)
Welcome
Cynthia Bridges, Secretary of the Louisiana Dept. of Revenue
Dynamic Scoring and the Federal Budget
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Congressional Budget Office
Recent Issues in Corporate Income Taxes:
Depreciation, Stock Options and Effective Tax Rates
Matthew Knittel, U.S. Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis
Break 10:15 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
Macroeconomic Forecast
Cynthia Latta, Global Insight
Regional Economic Forecast
Charles deSeve, American Economics Group
Lunch 12:00 to 2:00 p.m. (on your own)
Breakout sessions 2:00 to 3:30
Session I: Outlook for Selected Economic Sectors (Dauphine I & II)
Moderator: Michael Allen
The Outlook for Construction & Housing: Big Buildup or In the Hole?
Kenneth Simonson, Associated Gerneral Contractors of America
Outlook for the Retail Sector
Cynthia Latta, Global Insight
Session II: Managing a Research Section (Fulton)
Moderator: Dick Gebhart
Tax Compliance Research Opportunities In a Lean Budgetary Environment
Dick Gebhart, Minnesota Dept. of Revenue
Performance Based Compensation In Minnesota
Tom Stinson, Minnesota Dept. of Finance
Oregon’s Council of Revenue Forecast Advisors: The costs & Benefits of Forming a Review Committee
Tom Potiowsky, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Managing the Fiscal Note Process and Staying Employed
Mary Welsh, Washington Dept. of Revenue
Regional Breakout Sessions 3:45 to 5:30
Concurrent Breakout Sessions 8:30 a.m. – 10:00 a.m.
Session III: Corporate Tax Issues/Delaware Holding Companies (Dauphine I & II)
Moderator: Michael Allen
Corporate Income Tax In Maryland -- What Next?
David Roose, Maryland Comptroller of the Treasury
Corporate Business Tax Reform in New Jersey: One Year & Counting
Richard Kaluzny, New Jersey Dept. of Treasury
The Effects of Pass-through Entities on Tax Collections
Benjamin Uy, BearingPoint
Session IV: State Tax Reform (Fulton)
Moderator: Tom Clifford
Ohio State & Local Tax Study
Mke Sobul, Ohio Dept. of Taxation
Washington State Tax Study Committee
Lorrie Brown, Washington Dept. of Revenue
What Needs Reforming?
Robert Cline, Ernst and Young, LLP
New Mexico State Tax Study
Tom Clifford, New Mexico Taxation & Revenue Department
Break 10:00 a.m. – 10:15 a.m.
Concurrent Breakout Sessions 10:15 a.m. – 12:00 a.m.
Session V: Forecasting on a Shoe String: Methodological Approaches for Small States (and What Can Be Learned from Large States) (Dauphine I & II)
Moderator:Joe LaFace
Issues in forecasting the Sales and use Tax: Wealth Variables and Beharioral Responses
Michael Sobul, Ohio Dept. of Taxation
Forecasting Oregon Personal Income Tax Revenues: The Elusive Tax Base
Michael Kennedy, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Complementary Revenue Estimating Techniques to Regression Analysis
Joe LaFace, Arkansas Dept. of Finance & Administration
Favorite Tips, Tricks, and Insights on Revenue Forecasting
Discussion from Participants
Session VI: Tax Expenditure Budgets – Moderator: John Scott (Antonine)
TBD
Session VII: Data Base Development (Fulton)
Moderator: Eng Braun
The Washington State Compliance Study
Mary Welsh, Washington Dept. of Revenue
Developing NAICS-based Forecasts
Fred Treyz, Regional Economic Models, Inc.
Corporate Tax Modeling for Combined Reporting
Eng Braun, Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue
Lunch 12:00 noon to 1:30 p.m. (Riverside I & II)
Gazing into the Crystal Ball: Key Factors That Will Influence Revenue Forecasts
Speaker: Dr. Loren Scott, Loren Scott Associates
Working Session 1:30 p.m. – 2:30 p.m.
Break 2:30 p.m. – 2:45 p.m.
Concurent Breakout Sessions 2:45 p.m. – 4:30 p.m.
Session VIII: Personal Income Taxes (Dauphine I & II)
Moderator: Karen Schlain
A Review of Arizona’s Credits
Georganna Meyer, Arizona Dept. of Revenue
Income Tax Forecasting, Who Does What Exogenously?
Tom Williams, Utah State Tax Commission
Impact of the Federal Alternative Minimum Tax on New Yorkers
Karen Schlain, New York City Dept. of Finance
Session IX: Cigarette Taxes (Fulton)
Moderator: TBD
Estimating the Elasticity and Border Effect for the Cigarette Tax
Some Preliminary Estimates of the Border Price Effect on cigarette Sales (paper)
David Peterson, Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue
The Minnesota Fee on Non-Participating Manufactures
Rod Hoheisel, Minnesota Dept. of Revenue
Banquet 6:30 p.m. – 10:30 p.m. (Grand Ballroom - Riverside I, II, & III)
with entertainment
9:00 a.m. – 12:00 a.m. General Session (Riverside III)
Update on the Streamlined Sales Tax Project
Diane Hardt, Wisconsin Dept. of Revenue & Co-Chair SSTP
Washington Update
Harley Duncan, FTA
Volatility of Major Tax Types
Fanny Naribo-Roberts, Washington Dept of Revenue
Update on the FTA Research Roundtable
Joe LaFace, Arkansas Dept. of Finance & Administration and Chair of the Research Roundtable
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