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Improving and empowering state tax administration

2011 Revenue Estimating Conference

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Presentations & Papers

All papers & presentations are in Adobe Acrbat format.

Monday, October 17, 2011
General Session

General Macro Economic Outlook
 Nigel Gault, IHS Global Insight

Regional Economic Outlook
 Steven Cochrane, Moody’s Analytics


State Fiscal Outlook
  Scott Pattison, National Association of State Budget Officers

Update on Federal Legislation [no presentation]
  Gale Garriott, Federation of Tax Administrators


    Sales Taxes and Electronic Commerce: Are There Employment Impacts?
[no presentation]
    Donald Bruce, University of Tennessee
Concurrent Breakout Sessions

Session I: Sectorial Outlook - moderator, Fitzroy Lee
-Retail Outlook, Michael Niemira, ICSC
-Automobile Outlook, Kim Hill, Center for Automotive Research
-Housing Outlook, Douglas Duncan, Fannie Mae
-Employment Outlook, Robert Valletta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco


Session II: Enforcement Revenues - moderator, Michael Kaufmann

An Assessment of the North Carolina Tax Amnesty of 1989
William Spencer, North Carolina Dept. of Revenue

CBT Enforcement Collection Trends Through Amnesty Cycles In New Jersey: A Comparison With Selected Neighboring States
Ranjana Madhusudhan and Roger Cohen, New Jersey Dept. of the Treasury

Tuesday, October 18, 2011
General Session

Joint FTA/NTA Session - Sensitivity of Wealthy/Businesses to State Tax Differences and Implications for Long-term State and Local Fiscal Sustainability
Moderator - Ranjana Madhusudhan

Tax Rates and the Location Decision of the Wealthy
  Richard Prisinzano, U.S. Department of Treasury

State Tax Competition
  Daniel Wilson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Long-term Fiscal Sustainability of State and Local Governments
  Bo Zhao and David Coyne, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Discussant: Jim Landers, Indiana Legislative Services Agency

*Organized by Ranjana Madhusudhan, New Jersey Dept. of Treasury

Concurrent Breakout Sessions

Session I: Tax Credit Reporting - moderator, Rod Hoheisel

Methodology in Tax Credit Evaluation Study
  Zhong Jin, Iowa Dept. or Revenue
    Paper: Iowa New Job Training Program, Economic Impact Analysis

Benefits of Tracking West Virginia Business Tax Credits Over 25 Years
  Mark Muchow, West Virginia Dept. of Revenue

Income Tax Credits - Impact on Revenues
  Georganna Meyer, Arizona Dept. of Revenue


Session II: Revenue Forecasting, Why We Missed Our Targets and How to Fix It? - moderator, Romina Soria

Using Cointegrating Relationships to Capture the Cyclical and Long-run Dynamics of Revenue Forecasts: A Simple Example from Massachusetts
  Alan Clayton-Matthews, Northeastern University

Revenue Recap: Comparing State Sales and Withheld Receipts to Retail Sales and Employment Statistics
 Philippa Dunne, Liscio Report

Revenue Forecast Errors and Business Cycles: The Case of Wisconsin
  Romina Soria, Wisconsin Dept. Revenue


Concurrent Breakout Sessions

Session I: Corporate Income Tax Combined Reporting - moderator, Norton Francis

FTA Award Winner
Maryland Corporate Information Reporting and Combined Reporting Study, by the Bureau of Revenue Estimates

 Andrew Schaufele, Maryland Comptroller

Discussion - all participants. [states that have enacted or have considered combined reporting legislation are asked to be prepared to discuss how they estimated the revenue impact and possible problems they encountered]


Wednesday, October 19, 2011
General Session

Presiding: Fitzroy Lee, District of Columbia and Chair FTA Research Section

FTA Update
  Ron Alt, Federation of Tax Administrators

States’ Revenue Estimating – Cracks in the Crystal Ball
  Bob Ward, Rockefeller Institute of Government representative
  [download and view the full report]

Taxation and Interstate Competition in Midwest Casinos  
  Jim Landers, Indiana Legislative Services Agency

Update on Research Roundtable Activities

Invitation to Rhode Island in 2012