2016 Revenue Estimating Conference

2016 FTA Revenue Estimating Conference

The 2016 FTA Revenue Estimating and Tax Research Conference was held, Oct. 15-19 at the Berkeley Hotel in Asbury Park, New Jersey.

You may view/download all presentations from the conference.

  View Presentation

Mark your calendars, the 2017 FTA Revenue Estimation and Tax Research Conference will be held September 23-27, at the Doubletree Hotel in Downtown Omaha, NE.  

2016 FTA Revenue Estimating Conference - Presentations

All presentations are in pdf format.

 [back to Conference Home Page]       [back to All Revenue Estimating Conference]

Monday, October 17, 2016

Monday Morning General Session    Presiding: Rod Hoheisel, Minnesota Dept. of Revenue and Chair FTA Research Section         Welcome to New Jersey  Ford M. Scudder, Treasurer of the State of New Jersey         Macroeconomic Outlook  Sara Johnson, IHS Economics  [presentation]      Regional Economic Outlook  Steve Cochrane, Moodys Analytics  [presentation]     Tax Reform, A Business Perspective  Deborah Bierbaum, AT&T  [presentation]     What Determines the Level of Business Property Taxes  David Merriman, University of Illinois at Chicago  [presentation]

Lunch [with speaker]   Speaker: State Coincident & Leading Indexes  Paul Flora, Senior Economic Analyst, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia  [presentation]    [Excel Spreadsheet]

Concurrent Sessions SECTORIAL OUTLOOK     moderator: Rod Hoheisel, Minnesota Dept. of Revenue       Automobile Outlook  Kim Hill, HWA Analytics  [presentation]     Housing Outlook  Yanling Mayer, CoreLogic  [presentation]     Retail Outlook  Daniel Bachman, Deloitte  [presentation]       Property Taxes and Intergovernmental Issues     moderator: Eric Willette, Minnesota Dept. of Revenue         Cities and State Fiscal Structures  Christiana K. McFarland, National League of Cities  [presentation]     Local Government Fiscal Autonomy in Minnesota  Eric Willette, Minnesota Dept. of Revenue  [presentation]     California: Governor Jerry Brown and Subsidiarity  Jay Chamberlain, California Dept. of Finance  [presentation]      discussant: David Merriman, University of Illinois at Chicago

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Joint FTA-NTA Session - State Tax Reform*     moderator: Ranjana Madhusudhan, New Jersey Dept. of Treasury         How Would Leading Federal Tax Reform Options Affect State and Local Governments?  Alan Viard, American Enterprise Institute  [presentation]     What Can Tax Data Tell Us About the Characteristics of Contingent Workers?  James Mackie, U.S. Dept. of Treasury  [presentation]     A Local Dimension to State Tax Reform  Sally Wallace, Georgia State University  [presentation]     Examining State Tax Commissions: 2006-2016  Richard Auxier, Urban Institute - Tax Policy Center  [presentation]      discussant: Norton Francis, Urban Institute Tax Policy Center        * Organized by Ranjana Madhusudhan, New Jersey Dept. of Treasury

Concurrent Sessions State Tax Reform - Concurrent Session    moderator: David Gunter, Maine Revenue Services         NYC Recent Business Tax Reform  Karen Schlain and David Ho, New York City Dept. of Finance  [presentation]     Comprehensive Tax Reform: North Carolina's Recent Experience  Ed McLenaghan, North Carolina Office of State Budget & Management and Robert Bowles, Dept. of Revenue  [presentation]     Kentucky Blue Ribbon Tax Study  Greg Harkenrider, Kentucky Office of Economic Analysis  [presentation]             Revenue Forecasting Models in a Changing Data Environment - FTA/NASBO Session    moderator: Brian Sigritz, NASBO         Forecasting Income Tax Withholding In Minnesota  John Peloquin, Minnesota Management & Budget  [presentation]     Trends and Cycles in Montana Income Tax Data: Implications for Revenue Forecasting  Daniel Dodds, Montana Dept. of Revenue  [presentation]    [papers] Limitations of Economic Data for Fine-Tuning Revenue Projections  Charles Steindel, Ramapo College  [presentation]       SOLUTION SERIES   10:45-11:30 Chainbridge Pitfalls in Revenue Estimation: A Case Study in Microsimulation Extrapolation  Eric Cook and Jaime Copenhaver, Chainbridge         11:45-12:30 REMI 2.0 - Your Bully Pulpit for Smart Modeling, Smart Analysis & Smart Policy  Chris Brown and John Bennett, REMI

Data Base Development and Tools    moderator: Ranjana Madhusudhan, New Jersey Dept. of Treasury         Rapid Revenue Analysis with Modern Business Intelligence  Roger Cohen, New Jersey Dept. of Treasury  [presentation]       Sales Tax Forecasting and Analysis by Industry Type the Florida Model  Robert Mckee, Florida Dept. of Revenue  [presentation]       Sales Tax Data Tracking and Forecasting in Texas  Tom Currah and Tetyana Melnyk, Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts  [presentation]       Data and Information Gathering: Lessons Learned Thus Far in Developing DCs First Tax Expenditure Evaluation Report  Charlotte Otabor, District of Columbia Office of Revenue Analysis  [presentation]       Tax Policy Analysis   moderator: Rebecca Sameroff, Vermont Dept. of Taxes         Income and Inequality in Montana from 2001 Through 2014  Aaron McNay, Montana Dept. of Revenue  [presentation]     Impact of Raising the Minimum Hourly Rate  Yi Geng, Fahad Fahimullah, Daniel Muhammad and Jeffrey Wilkins, District of Columbia and Bradley Hardy, American U.  [presentation]       Impact of Raising the Minimum Hourly Rate - Illinois Analysis  Hector Vielma, Illinois Dept. of Revenue  [presentation]       Nationwide Tax Rates and Tax Burdens Study  Lori Metcalf, District of Columbia Office of Revenue Analysis  [presentation]

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Wednesday Morning General Session  Presiding: Rod Hoheisel, Minnesota Dept. of Revenue and Chair FTA Research Section         Migration - An Analysis of California's Proposition 30  Allen Prohofsky, California Franchise Tax Board and Charles Varner, Stanford University     The Utah Fiscal Stress Test  Phil Dean, Utah Office of Management & Budget  [presentation]     The Revenue Effects of Conformity to Federal Personal Tax Expenditures  Mark Robyn, Pew Charitable Trusts  [presentation]  [paper]

2016 FTA Revenue Estimating Conference - Registration

The Conference Registration Fees are:

• $430 for Government or Academic
• $530 for Industry
• $135 Guest (includes reception & banquet)

Online Registration is closed.

Registration goes up $25 for those who haven't registered by Oct. 12.

Payment does not need to accompany registration. Payments can be made by check or credit card. [If you need a printout for travel approval, you can register online and print confirmation to submit for approval]. You may pay by credit card at a later date by going to the online registration and entering your email address and confirmation number. 

2016 FTA Revenue Estimating Conference - Hotel

The conference will be held at the Berkeley Hotel at 1401 Ocean Avenue, Asbury Park, NJ 07712. The Berkeley has been a trademark presence within the Asbury Park community for over 100 years. Recently updated, it includes all the modern amenities for business hotels, while preserving the Victorian architecture. It is located close to many restaurants and easily accessible by regular transit services.

The Conference rate

• $119 per night plus 15% taxes - single/double

Reservations
All reservations must be made individually through the Hotel's Reservations number or website.

• Reserve Online
• or call, 732-776-6700 [selection option 1]

Tell the reservation clerk that you are attending the FTA Revenue Estimating Conference [group code FTARC] to receive the group rate. Note, if you need a room on Friday or Wednesday evening, please call the hotel reservation line.  The hotel will give the conference rate for these nights, if space is available.

Early registration is urged, as the block tends to fill quickly. The cut-off date for hotel reservations is September 23; reservations will be accepted on a space available basis after that date.

Getting There

The closest airport is the Newark International Airport [EWR] about 50 minutes away by car. There is also hourly train service and van transportation services to the hotel.

• NJTransit provides regular train service between the airport and Asbury Park (every 90 minutes). Cost one-way is $17.50. See website for schedule and other information.
• Van Service transportation is also available from the airport for approximately $74 one-way.

Need help, contact Ron Alt at <ron.alt@taxadmin.org>.

2016 FTA Revenue Estimating Conference - Local Information

The Berkeley Hotel is near the Asbury Park Convention Hall, with its many shops and restaurants, and a short walk/shuttle ride from downtown Asbury Park. Also nearby are many historical sites such as the Pinball Museum, Stone Pony, and the Wonder Bar. See the Asbury Park Chamber website to more details.

For information on Restaurants, See Trip Advisor Website,

or, Saveur Magazine.

The Stone Pony
The venue known as a launching pad for many of American’s music legends, including Bruce Springsteen, Patti Scialfa, Jon Bon Jovi and more, the Stone Pony is a music club with performances by local and up-in-coming bands.

See website for schedule and ticket information.

Lighthouses
The Jersey Shore is home to many scenic/historical lighthouses. Some are a short drive from Asbury Park.

For information and locations see the New Jersey State Website.

For a Map of Lighthouses, See the Lighthouse Friends Website.

View Video of New Jersey:

FTA's Marketing Partner

FTA would like to Thank our Marketing Partner:

The Regional Economic Models, Inc [REMI] model is a dynamic economic forecasting software application inspired by a single goal; to inform and improve the quality of public policy decisions. Products Include:

• Policy Insight [PI+], generates realistic year-by-year estimates of the total regional effects of any specific policy initiative.
• TranSight is the leading tool for evaluating the total economic effects of changes to transportation systems.
• Tax-PI, a new tool for evaluating the total fiscal and economic effects of tax policy changes.
• Metro-PI provides comprehensive economic and demographic forecasting for sub-county geographies.
• REMI’s Consulting Services

See the REMI table near the registration desk, or visit their website <http://www.remi.com/> for more information.

Chairbridge Software has been working with state governments for over a decade on tax models, various consulting projects, and transfer pricing analyses. With our ComplianceLinks and PolicyLinks software suites, Chainbridge offers valuable insight for any state. Some of the products include:

• ComplianceLinks is a suite of services designed to provide Internal Revenue Code (IRC) § 482 economic auditing power to state clients. The modules of the ComplianceLinks section, as well as associated services Chainbridge provides are detailed below.
• PolicyLinks is the most advanced microsimulation tax policy modeling system available today. This tax policy analysis tool determines how changes to tax policies affect taxpayers by income classification, total revenue and receipts. 
• Specialized tax analysis consulting services

See the Chainbridge table near the registration desk, or visit their website <http://chainbridge.com/> for more information.