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Improving and empowering state tax administration

2009 Revenue Estimating Conference

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2009 FTA Revenue Estimating Conference - Papers & Presentations

All presentations are in Adobe Acrobat format.

Monday, September 14, 2009
General Session

General Macro Economic Outlook
Mark Zandi, Moody's

Regional Economic Outlook
James Diffley, IHS Global Insights

Finally, An Accurate Real-time Series: Forecasting With State Tax Receipts
Philippa Dunne, Liscio Report

Federal Revenue Outlook
 Mark Booth, CBO


 Thinking About a Federal VAT: Considerations for the States

   Harley Duncan, KPMG Peat Marwick
Concurrent Breakout Sessions

Session I

Sectorial Outlook - moderator, Michael Ferguson
-Retail Outlook, Michael Niemira, ICSC
-Automobile Outlook, Deb Menk, Center for Automotive Research [large file]
-Housing Outlook, Economist, Eugenio Aleman, Wells Fargo

Session II

Compliance Research - moderator, Michael Lipsman

Creating a Data-Driven Audit Division: New York City’s Experience
 Joy Chen, New York City Department of Finance

State Reverse File Match Initiative (SRFMI)
 Kevin Mullen, IRS

Iowa’s Tax Gap and Statistical Analysis Programs: Past Experiences and Future Directions
 Mike Lipsman, Iowa Dept. of Revenue

Tuesday, September 15, 2009
General Session

Joint FTA/NTA Session - Tax Expenditure Analysis*
Moderator - Fitzroy Lee

Promoting State Budget Accountability Through Tax Expenditure Reporting
 Nicholas Johnson, CBPP

The Critical Link between Tax Policy and Tax Expenditure:  The Importance of Unresolved Issues
 John Mikesell, Indiana University

Tax Expenditures and the Subsidization of Homeownership[large file]
 Andrew Reschovsky, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Tax Expenditure Implications of Changes in State Corporate Income Tax Apportionment Formulas (draft-version)
 Elliott Dubin, MTC and Jim Landers, Indiana Legislative Services Agency

Discussant, Laura Wheeler, Georgia State University

*Session Organized by Ranjana Madhusudhan, New Jersey Dept. of Treasury

Concurrent Breakout Sessions

Session I

Joint FTA/NTA Session - Selected State Experiences in Tax Expenditure Analysis: Issues & Options*- Moderator, Paul Wilson

Including Estimates of the Incidence of Tax Expenditures: Learning from the Texas Experience
 Sergio Madrigal, Texas Legislative Budget Bureau and Curtis Toews, Texas Comptroller's Office

Including Assessments of the Effectiveness of Tax Expenditures: Learning from Selected State Experiences
 Jay Chamberlain, California Franchise Board
 Joel Michael, Minnesota House Research
 Mike Lipsman and Zhong Jin, Iowa Dept. of Revenue

Making Tax Expenditure Studies More Useful to Policymakers: A Legislative Perspective
 Rep. Ann Lenczewski, Minnesota House Tax Committee Chair

Discussant: Nick Johnson, CBPP

*Session Organized by Ranjana Madhusudhan, New Jersey Dept. of Treasury

Session II

Developing State Coincidence/Leading Indicators - moderator, Michael Ferguson

 Michael Ferguson, Idaho Dept. of Financial Mangement
 Allan Clayton-Matthews, University of Massachusetts Boston
 Keith Philips, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank


Lunch (on your own)
Concurrent Breakout Sessions

Session I

Micro-Simulation Modeling - moderator, Amy Harris

Who Will Pay What? Modeling the Distribution of Costs of Climate Change Policies
 Kevin Perese, CBO

Using Detailed IRS Data on 'Net Misreported Income' to Estimate Minnesota's Income Tax Gap
 George Temple and Kelly Kenley, Minnesota Dept. of Revenue

Modeling Tax Reform in Maine
 Michael Allen and David Gunter, Maine Revenue Services


Evening Banquet
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
General Session

Presiding: Michael Ferguson, Idaho Dept. of Financial Mangement and Chair FTA Research Section

Update on Census Revenue Reports
Christopher Pece, U.S. Census Bureau

State Tax Revenue Performance over the Business Cycle
 Richard Mattoon, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

The Effect of the Smoke Free Illinois Act on Riverboat Casino Adjusted Gross Receipts Tax in Illinois, a Quasi Experimental Approach for Practitioners
Hans Zigmund, Illinois Dept. of Revenue

Update on Research Roundtable Activities

Invitation to Idaho in 2010